Outdoor companies expect 2024 to look similar to 2023, which means dealing with inventory challenges and macroeconomic pressures, including inflation, at least for the beginning part of the year.
Whether those issues will persist into Q3 and Q4 remains to be seen. For now, the name of the game is conservative projections. Brands are showing cautious optimism to avoid the issues that the industry saw this year, including overstocking and a promotional environment.
To get a sense of how outdoor brands expect 2024 to play out and what they learned in 2023, The Daily spoke with nine different companies across the industry.
Adam Chamberlin, country manager, Rab
What is your business outlook for 2024? How do you think it will compare to 2023?
Adam Chamberlin: We expect 2024 to be generally flat to slightly down across outdoor retail. Our business should buck that trend with modest growth in 2024, as our order cancellation rate has mellowed.
Current sell-through reports are positive and we have strong momentum. These positive signals are an honor and credit to the Rab brand and our business partners as they come during an unprecedented period of promotional activity by brands and retailers that is not exactly creating a tailwind.
What did you learn in 2023 about the outdoor business?
Adam Chamberlin: I came to better appreciate how segmented even the technical outdoor apparel market can be, as well how these segments are better fits for some retailers more than others. I’ve been very impressed with the resilience of many brands and retailers in 2023.
Some well-loved and established brands reinvented themselves in 2023 and seem to be on a path to greater authenticity and stability.
We also learned that in a tough business environment, not all businesses make it. Even great people with the best intentions can fall victim to timing, competition, and the bank.
Was there anything that surprised you about how 2023 went?
Adam Chamberlin: I was surprised by the rapid spread of concern about fluorocarbon chemicals in our products and the scramble to support our retailers with PFAS-compliant products for future seasons.
Many outdoor brands, including Rab, have been eliminating fluorocarbons from DWR, fabrics, and trims for years, but the threat of impending 2025 legislation in California, New York, and Maine really galvanized manufacturers and made “forever chemicals” a legitimate talking point in industry circles and retailer meetings.
Jonathan Degenhardt, U.S. managing director, Deuter and Ortovox
What is your business outlook for 2024? How do you think it will compare to 2023?
Jonathan Degenhardt: We are cautiously optimistic moving into 2024. Our forecasts for 2024 show a slight increase from 2023.
What did you learn in 2023 about the outdoor business?
Jonathan Degenhardt: We have learned that diversification among sales channels really helps flatten the curve when one channel faces disruption.
Was there anything that surprised you about how 2023 went?
Jonathan Degenhardt: What surprised us the most in 2023 was that consumer spending in our key categories exceeded what we had planned. This shows that consumers are still searching for high-quality gear and are willing to pay full price.
Drew Saunders, general manager, Oberalp Group
What is your business outlook for 2024? How do you think it will compare to 2023?
Drew Saunders: Our business at Oberalp North America (including Dynafit, Salewa, Pomoca, Wild Country, and Evolv) was significantly larger in 2023 than it was pre-COVID.
However, the broader industry and our business faced some clear challenges in 2023 – a step back from the COVID peak, high inventory levels in the market at both retailers and brands, a promotional environment, and some distressed retailers.
We do see those challenges continuing into 2024 but expect that they will improve from the beginning of the year to the end. We see 2024 as an important year for the industry to get healthier, especially in terms of inventory and returning to full-price sales.
What did you learn in 2023 about the outdoor business?
Drew Saunders: In 2023, the supply chain returned to more normal conditions and with a lot of inventory available in the market, the true post-COVID demand became more clear. That demand was greater than pre-COVID but below the peak.
Was there anything that surprised you about how 2023 went?
Drew Saunders: The sustained volume and degree of promotions and discounts in the market was eye-opening in 2023. We look forward to a return to healthier inventory levels with retailers and brands selling at full price and sustainable margins.
Rebecca Day, head of North America marketing, Primus-Silva
What is your business outlook for 2024? How do you think it will compare to 2023?
Rebecca Day: 2023 was a year where we had a fair amount of excess inventory thanks to an abnormal 2022. Now that the bulk of those extra products has worked its way out into the marketplace, we are in a strong position to offer stoves and the additional cooking accessories that people want for their camp kitchens.
Was there anything that surprised you about how 2023 went?
Rebecca Day: It is so hard to plan around, build, and budget for the boom that almost everyone in the outdoor industry experienced in 2022. Many brands, including ourselves, just had too much of everything, from staff to products, going into 2023.
Hopefully, given what we’ve experienced, we have worked through the ups and downs of the industry.
Cassie Abel, founder and CEO, Wild Rye
What is your business outlook for 2024? How do you think it will compare to 2023?
Cassie Abel: We expect an uptick in growth (in part due to new product categories) but are being cautiously optimistic about exactly how much to expect.
There’s still an excess of inventory floating around out there. However, we plan to do anything we can to limit discounting promotions in 2024. While we’re seeing mixed confidence coming from our retailers, the overwhelming sentiment is that apparel is in a better position than hardgoods.
What did you learn in 2023 about the outdoor business?
Cassie Abel: The outdoor industry is moving in the right direction, but it’s important for outdoor brands to know that women are craving content, products, and experiences that are specifically made for and about them.
Was there anything that surprised you about how 2023 went?
Cassie Abel: 2023 has been a challenging business landscape across the board. We’ve had to buckle down and work overtime for every single dollar earned. That said, our ability to be nimble and scrappy despite limited resources has played to our advantage – we ended the year up roughly 40% over 2023.
Joey Pointer, president and CEO, Fleet Feet
What is your business outlook for 2024? How do you think it will compare to 2023?
Joey Pointer: Our focus will remain on enhancing the customer experience, both in-store and online. We will expand our footprint by another 20 doors, with a continued focus on franchise growth.
What did you learn in 2023 about the outdoor business?
Joey Pointer: We saw a boom in running participation coming out of the pandemic and haven’t seen it slow down yet.
Was there anything that surprised you about how 2023 went?
Joey Pointer: Operationally, we invested in several strategic initiatives, including consolidating three distribution centers into one, a new state-of-the-art facility, and enhancing our e-commerce platform with additional fulfillment capabilities to provide a more frictionless experience to our customers.
We opened 18 new stores, bringing our total to 292. We’re ending the year on a high note, with record sales across our brick-and-mortar and digital footprints.
Daniel Suher, sales manager, Suunto
What is your business outlook for 2024? How do you think it will compare to 2023?
Daniel Suher: I am cautiously optimistic. It seems that in most cases, inventory levels are starting to right-size (although some vendors and retailers alike still have far to go), the promotional activities of the last few years hopefully will decline a bit in response.
With inflation cooling and interest rates slowly coming down, the macro-economics should provide for a stronger 2024.
What did you learn in 2023 about the outdoor business?
Daniel Suher: With inflation sky-high in the early part of the year especially coupled with overstock situations amongst a number of key retailers and vendors, it was educational to see how the consumer, the vendor, and the retailer each responded.
Most responded by offering bigger discounts for longer periods.
I just hope that we have not conditioned the consumer to expect this type of discounting in perpetuity.
On a brighter note, I continue to see new brands coming into the channel, or smaller brands growing their distribution, including those from Europe or elsewhere expanding into the USA. This certainly is great to see – although it means more competition for open-to-buy dollars, it also means that others are seeing opportunity within the outdoor business.
Was there anything that surprised you about how 2023 went?
Daniel Suher: One of the biggest surprises for me was the Moosejaw acquisition by Dick’s Sporting Goods. It was not necessarily shocking to see Walmart divest from the specialty outdoor retailer, as they took similar action on other specialty e-commerce brands acquired around the same time as Moosejaw. What did surprise me was the buyer – since Dick’s Sporting Goods has been investing in their own outdoor concept, Public Lands. I look forward to seeing how these two concepts chart their respective courses in 2024 and beyond.
Jess Long, business development director, Cardo
What is your business outlook for 2024? How do you think it will compare to 2023?
Jess Long: We are continuing to push our strategy forward. 2023 was a year to build brand awareness for us, and we hope that in 2024, we will continue to increase our reach across consumers and specialty retail partners.
What did you learn in 2023 about the outdoor business?
Jess Long: We learned that business can be tricky, and that patience is critical as we educate people about Cardo’s technology and potential in the outdoor market. We learned that flexibility is also key as different partners are going through different phases in their business, and there is no one formula anymore.
Was there anything that surprised you about how 2023 went?
Jess Long: We saw a major change in people’s mindset between the beginning of 2023 and the end. People were more open and excited about new things and technology for outdoor sports – especially in the snow world.
Duane Primozich, CEO, Backpacker’s Pantry
What is your business outlook for 2024? How do you think it will compare to 2023?
Duane Primozich: Looking ahead to 2024, the outlook is bright following a strong 2023 characterized by growth in most wholesale accounts and direct-to-consumer channels.
What did you learn in 2023 about the outdoor business?
Duane Primozich: In 2023, key learnings in the outdoor business revolved around the importance of flexibility, resilience, and an intensified focus on customer-centricity. As a family-owned company with nearly 75 years of history, the year underscored the value of strong partnerships and adaptability in the face of challenges.
Was there anything that surprised you about how 2023 went?
Duane Primozich: Yes, 2023 brought some unexpected trends, particularly in consumer purchasing patterns. Notably, customers were making their purchases later in the season than usual. This shift was a bit of a surprise, as it deviated from traditional buying behaviors observed in previous years.
These interviews have been edited for length and clarity.
Bart Schaneman can be reached at [email protected].