Outdoor retailers and brands are going to have to make some big calls about direction in 2024. As a perfect microcosm of what’s happening across the industry, take brown leather boots versus lightweight trail runners.

The boots have long been a staple for outdoor retailers and brands appealing to core consumers who want sturdy footwear to go on a demanding outing. But the new entrant to the market who wants to go on a few-hour hike doesn’t need something that heavy, technical, or expensive, and many are opting for trail runners.

It goes beyond brown leather boots – it’s kayaks, bikes, tents, skis, and just about any other higher-priced hardgood that outdoor active brands and retailers hold up as our flagship products.

The question is this: Now that we have what we wanted – record participation numbers – are we going to follow customers to where they lead us, or are we going to try to inspire some customers to come back toward where we are comfortable?

What is your brand or your store going to choose to be this year?  And are you prepared for that to be your brand for years to come?

The way that you decide to answer those questions – and what you decide to sell – over the next 12 months will probably have a critical impact on where your organization sits years from now.

Pandemic Fueled More Casual Participation

Leading up to the pandemic, the outdoor industry was rightfully engaged in a process of self-examination around how to get more, and more diverse, people involved in the outdoors.

Brands focused marketing on weekend adventures and close-to-home activities rather than sufferfests on distant peaks. We saw real progress in depicting outdoorsy people as more than just skinny white climbers. Companies made leadership hires that more closely reflected the demographics of the U.S., rather than spinning the same dozen executives around the carousel. All of this was positive.

And it worked! When the world changed due to COVID-19, the outdoor industry was well-positioned (at least marketing-wise) to appeal to the people who wanted to go outside. We had messaging and product that matched up with attainable escapism.

The pervasive images of friends outside, around the campfire, as opposed to mountaineers suffering in the Himalayas, gave consumers a roadmap to the connections that they craved during the pandemic.

A wider variety of customers than ever before could look at industry marketing and see themselves there. So during the pandemic, when the supply chain allowed, customers bought outdoor gear like never before. And let me be clear – having more people of all types engaged in the outdoors was fantastic.

During the COVID-19 crisis, the U.S. population spent an estimated $500 billion dollars more than predicted on recreational gear and sporting goods, according to Wendy Edelberg, senior fellow of economic studies at the Brookings Institute. It made us all look like geniuses.

But then a funny thing happened.

As the pandemic faded in the rearview mirror, a lot of that spending on outdoor gear started to fade as well. And rather than follow what the industry perceives as the natural progression of the outdoorsy consumer (from beginner to enthusiast to expert, with gear and apparel upgrades at every step) many new participants settled back into a more casual and occasional relationship with outdoor fun.

Thus it’s no surprise that sell-through on traditional hardgoods in the outdoor active space is pretty low right now.

What is Selling? Running Shoes, Not Leather Boots

Hoka, On and Altra all had big years. Brooks is still huge.

These lighter, faster footwear brands are a hit with day hikers who don’t need big, heavy boots to enjoy a few hours out on the trail.

That’s symptomatic of how the outdoor customer pool changed toward what we had asked for – broader, deeper, more casual on average, and with less need to buy expensive hardgoods every year.

There are so many people who bought bikes, boats, tents, etc. in the last three or four years that had never had those kinds of products before.

It turns out, those people aren’t going to buy those things again every year. But many of them are still engaged with our brands and retailers and are still buying gear.

It’s just that the gear isn’t what we are used to selling. It’s more casual and more lifestyle. It’s shoes rather than boots. It’s different, but not wrong, and it’s a dynamic that we must determine our response to.

Outdoor Industry Historically Built on Aspiration

We built brands with the promise that – if customers bought what we were selling – we could help people climb high peaks, explore the wilderness, connect with nature and push their personal boundaries.

We centered that aspiration around big pieces of gear. We showed people cycling through the mountains, kayaking in the bayou, ensconced in tents in the snow, and shredding the pow. We told them that we could make them outdoor heroes.

Given what we know right now, there is little chance that the big pieces of gear are going to sell well this year. Bike and boat brands are swimming in product, camping is going to be super promotional this summer, and we are in the middle of the slowest ski-selling season in recent memory.

Here is where your choice comes in.

Who is your brand going to be over the next few seasons? What are you going to order and sell going forward?

Are you going to commit to following the trend towards more casual gear and apparel while exiting or minimizing the gear that isn’t selling?  It makes sense given what is happening.

There are more customers, more dollars, and more space down that path. You would be selling to a bigger market. But there is also much more competition over there.

You’ll be relying on the simple power of your brand to differentiate yourself from anything from Walmart to Lululemon to Shein.  Are you going to focus on being welcoming and accessible to anyone who engages with you?

Or are you going to try to stake out a more technical space, even though you know that the product category that signals that positioning is going to be hard to sell?  Because that makes sense, too.

Even though there is less opportunity in that product category, being a technical brand gives you a competitive advantage with at least some customers.

However, the customer trend is moving against you.

The big-ticket items are not selling well right now. Are you going to weather the storm, hoping that you will read as genuine to your committed customers? Are you willing to market to the enthusiast at the expense of the casual?

Of course, we all want to answer that we can do both. The reality is that your decisions will lead you down one or another path, and if you try to do both you will likely fail on one side.

Authenticity is Gathered in Drops and Lost in Buckets

I truly believe that the path that you take your brand down this year – whether you are a retailer or a manufacturer – will set your course for years to come.

I can’t tell you what decision to make. In the short term, it makes complete sense to focus on the broad market opportunity that casual clothing and lifestyle merchandise provides.

It also makes sense to focus on the more aspirational aspect of what we do, even if the short-term results will be less than ideal.

What I do believe is this: You never get to return to being genuine. And while I hate to use this word, authenticity is gathered in drops and lost in buckets.

If you are a brand that thrived because your customers found inspiration in what you represented, you need to think carefully about what your next move is.

There is a short-term opportunity in selling to the market that engaged with the outdoor industry in the last four years. There is long-term power in inspiring people to use the outdoors to be the best version of themselves.

The right answer is yours to determine.

At Sunlight Sports, we will continue to sell some lifestyle gear of course. But our buy and our merchandising will be focused more on activity-focused hardgoods. As for me, I am off to make sure that my store has enough brown leather boots and backpacking tents.

Wes Allen, principal at Sunlight Sports, started working the floor in a small outdoor shop in the ‘90s.  Since then, he has worked for the world’s largest outdoor retailer, managed a brand, led the industry’s leading specialty retailer organization, and owned an independent retailer in Wyoming with his wife, Melissa.